Global Heat Surge: 80% Chance of Breaking 2024’s Temperature Record

by Chrispus C. Macauley

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning: global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record highs for the next five years, with growing consequences for societies, economies, and ecosystems.

According to its latest report released on Wednesday, 28th May 2025, there is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, and an 86% chance that global temperatures will temporarily exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold set in the Paris Agreement.

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The prediction comes amid growing concern that climate change is accelerating beyond control, with devastating impacts on human life and biodiversity. The WMO’s decadal climate forecast shows the average global temperature for 2025–2029 will likely range between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.

“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite,” said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. “This means a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems, and our planet.”

Arctic Warming Three Times Faster

The report highlights that the Arctic region is expected to warm more than three and a half times faster than the global average, with winter temperatures (November–March) projected to rise 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 baseline.

Sea ice is predicted to continue its decline in key polar regions such as the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.

Shifting Rainfall Patterns and Global Disruptions

Precipitation forecasts for 2025–2029 suggest major regional shifts, with wetter-than-average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier-than-average conditions in the Amazon Basin. South Asia, already experiencing increased rainfall, is expected to continue this trend, though not uniformly across all seasons.

The implications for agriculture, water security, and disaster resilience are profound. Extreme heatwaves, floods, droughts, and rising sea levels are all expected to intensify.

No Breach of Paris Agreement—Yet

The WMO clarified that while temporary breaches of the 1.5°C mark are increasingly likely, this does not mean the long-term Paris Agreement target has been exceeded. The 1.5°C goal refers to a 20-year average, and current estimates suggest the world is hovering between 1.34°C and 1.41°C above pre-industrial levels.

Still, the trend is worrisome. The probability that the five-year average from 2025–2029 will exceed 1.5°C has jumped to 70%, up from 47% in last year’s prediction.

Urgency Ahead of COP30

This sobering forecast sets the stage for COP30, the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference, where nations are expected to present updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—the backbone of efforts to meet the Paris targets.

Scientists and global leaders are calling for urgent emissions cuts, stronger adaptation policies, and better climate monitoring tools to respond to the rising threat.

“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” Barrett emphasized.

As global temperatures approach critical tipping points, the latest WMO forecast serves as a powerful reminder that every fraction of a degree matters—and time is running out.